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lectures/markov_chains_I.md

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@@ -82,16 +82,15 @@ In other words,
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If $P$ is a stochastic matrix, then so is the $k$-th power $P^k$ for all $k \in \mathbb N$.
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Checking this in {ref}`the last exercise <mc1_ex_3>` below.
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You are asked to check this in {ref}`an exercise <mc1_ex_3>` below.
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### Markov chains
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Now we can introduce Markov chains.
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Before defining a Markov chain rigorously, we'll give some examples.
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(Among other things, defining a Markov chain will clarify a connection between **stochastic matrices** and **Markov chains**.)
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(mc_eg2)=
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#### Example 1
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* "mr" represents mild recession
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* "sr" represents severe recession
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The arrows represent **transition probabilities** over one month.
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The arrows represent transition probabilities over one month.
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For example, the arrow from mild recession to normal growth has 0.145 next to it.
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97% probability of transitioning from normal growth to normal growth (staying
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in the same state).
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Note that these are *conditional* probabilities --- the probability of
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Note that these are conditional probabilities --- the probability of
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transitioning from one state to another (or staying at the same one) conditional on the
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current state.
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